If you hold general-security water in the Lower Namoi or the Gwydir, the NSW water department's statements of 8 October give you no new water. Both valleys stay at 0% for 2026-27, and each statement is headed No change to general security allocations. What you can use is what is in your account: Lower Namoi general-security accounts hold 307 GL between them, 125% of entitlement, and the Gwydir's 419 GL, 82%. Upper Namoi general security stays at its 100% maximum. High-security and town water licences hold their full allocations, and the department says higher-priority uses, which include town water, are secure for next 24 months and beyond; in the Namoi that includes Manilla and Barraba.

The change is for supplementary licence holders in both valleys, and floodplain harvesting licence holders in the Gwydir. In September the restrictions on their take had been temporarily lifted. In October both statements say A water restriction order is now active until 30 June 2027, and the department's page for the order says the restrictions were reinstated when Menindee's upper lakes fell below 250 GL. This follows our 2 October story on the September statements.

Licence by licence

Every licence category in both valleys holds the allocation it held in September. What moved is the water left in general-security accounts, and whether supplementary licences can take theirs.

2026-27 allocations, 7 September and 8 October statements

The marked rows are the ones that changed between the two statements.

  • General security, Lower NamoiAccount balance 125% (307 GL), down from 138% (339 GL)0%No change
  • General security, GwydirAccount balance 82% (419 GL), down from 86% (437 GL)0%No change
  • General security, Upper NamoiMaximum allowable. Account balance 328% (40 GL), up from 241% (29 GL)100%No change
  • High security, both valleysMaximum allowable, credited 1 July1.00 ML/shareNo change
  • Town water (local water utility), both valleysMaximum allowable, credited 1 July100%No change
  • Supplementary, both valleysAllocated 1.00 ML/share on 1 July. Take was temporarily allowed in September; an order to 30 June 2027 now prohibits it while Menindee's upper lakes are below 250 GLRestrictedChanged
  • Floodplain harvesting, GwydirAccount balance 490%. The same order now prohibits takeRestrictedChanged
Allocations and account balances from the first page and annexure of the 8 October statements (sources 1 and 2) and the 7 September statements (sources 3 and 4). Restriction status from those statements and the order's page (source 5). “Town water” is the statements' local water utility category.

In the Gwydir, the statement says Catchment conditions remain dry, with low inflow recorded in the past month, and that During September, GS usage was higher than last assessment at around 18 GL. The general-security balance fell from 437 GL to 419 GL, a fall of 18 GL (our arithmetic). Its second page splits that balance: 292 GL in irrigators' accounts, down from 310 GL, and 127 GL of general-security water held for the environment, the same as in September.

In the Lower Namoi the balance fell 32 GL, from 339 GL to 307 GL (our arithmetic); the statement does not say how much of that was water used and how much was traded. The Upper Namoi balance rose from 29 GL to 40 GL, and the traded volume it includes rose by the same 11 GL, from 16 GL to 27 GL.

Storage against what is already promised

Each statement's second page sets the dams' active volume against everything already committed from it: water for higher priorities, the general-security account balances, evaporation and delivery losses. What is left is the department's Surplus (or deficit) of water available after accounting for all commitments.

Active storage against commitments, GL

The dams' active volume beside the commitments the department subtracts from it. Bars to scale; the longest is 801 GL.

  • Namoi (Keepit and Split Rock), 31 Augustdeficit 9 Active604 Committed613
  • Namoi, 30 Septemberdeficit 6 Active578 Committed584
  • Gwydir (Copeton), 31 Augustsurplus 2 Active801 Committed799
  • Gwydir, 30 Septemberdeficit 2 Active772 Committed774
Gwydir, 31 August+2 GL
Gwydir, 30 September−2 GL
Resource assessment data sheets, page 2 of the 8 October and 7 September statements (sources 1 to 4). Active volume and the surplus or deficit are the department's figures. “Committed” is our sum of the lines the department subtracts: higher priorities, the general-security account balances, evaporation and delivery losses, and in the Gwydir the environmental water allowance and its delivery loss.

In the Gwydir that line has turned. At 31 August Copeton held 801 GL against 799 GL of commitments, a 2 GL surplus that the September statement called insufficient for a full percentage increment in allocation. At 30 September it held 772 GL against 774 GL, and the October statement reads A notional deficit is identified in this assessment, which will be monitored closely.

In the Namoi the deficit narrowed from 9 GL to 6 GL. The statement repeats, word for word, September's line that there has been a slight improvement in overall resources since the last assessment due to inflows into Keepit Dam. On its own second page, Keepit and Split Rock's combined active volume fell 26 GL, from 604 GL to 578 GL, while the commitments against it fell 29 GL, from 613 GL to 584 GL, 21 GL of that in the general-security account balances (our arithmetic). The two dams are counted together, and the statement says An initial bulk water transfer of around 15 gigalitres (GL) from Split Rock Dam to Keepit Dam was undertaken over August and September. Further transfers are scheduled to commence on Monday 26 October 2026.

Both statements also run the dams forward on an assumed repeat of historical minimum inflows. On that run the Namoi storages fall to their lowest around May 2028, a month later than in September's run, and Copeton to its lowest around May 2028, as before. The department says this is not a forecast but a simulation, run to show that higher-priority needs are secure.

Supplementary and floodplain harvesting: the Menindee trigger

Because the active storage level in the upper Menindee lakes has fallen below 250GL, the restrictions have been reinstated.

The department's page for the Temporary Water Restriction (various water sources in the northern Murray-Darling Basin) Order (No. 2) 2026, updated 28 September 2026 (source 5).

Both statements say the order prohibits take by supplementary licence holders, and the Gwydir's adds floodplain harvesting, and that The order is conditional on volumes at upper Menindee lakes. The order's page lists the restriction as current, from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027. Within that, the restrictions will be lifted if the active storage in the upper lakes of the Menindee Lakes System rises above 250 GL, and apply again if it falls back. The department's reason is that 250 GL represents up to 12 months’ supply for critical needs downstream, including town water for Menindee and Pooncarie. It says some water can be taken from higher flows that meet thresholds set out on the same page, and that the restrictions do not apply to licences with other categories such as Domestic and Stock licences, general or high security.

Our view

For general-security irrigators the October statements are a month of drawdown, and the turn in the Gwydir's bottom line matters less than it looks: September's 2 GL surplus was already too small to allocate, and a 2 GL deficit is no further from an allocation in practice. The Namoi's narrower deficit needs the same care. The department credits inflows into Keepit, and there may well have been some, but on its own figures the combined storage fell 26 GL; the deficit narrowed because commitments, mostly water sitting in accounts, fell a little faster than the dams did. That is water leaving accounts, not water arriving, and it is not a step toward an allocation. The real change this month is for supplementary licence holders, whose allocation is full on paper and whose take now turns on a lake system far down the Darling.

What to watch

The surplus line in each valley, and whether any inflow is large enough to lift it clear of zero; the Split Rock to Keepit transfers from 26 October; and the upper Menindee lakes, which decide when supplementary take can resume.

The dates the statements and the order give

  • 30 September 2026The date both October assessments are based on. Also the date the September statements gave for the end of the earlier Section 324 Order.
  • 1 October 2026Order No. 2 restriction starts: supplementary take in both valleys, and floodplain harvesting in the Gwydir.
  • 8 October 2026October statements: general security unchanged at 0% in the Lower Namoi and the Gwydir.
  • Monday 26 October 2026Further bulk water transfers from Split Rock Dam to Keepit Dam are scheduled to commence.
  • Friday 6 November 2026Next routine monthly statements for both valleys.
  • 30 June 2027The order's restriction ends.
Dates from the 8 October statements (sources 1 and 2), the 7 September statements (sources 3 and 4) and the order's page (source 5).

The department says the next statements will be published on Friday 6 November 2026.

Sources

  1. NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Water Allocation Statement, Namoi Regulated River Water Sources, 8 October 2026 (PDF, PUB26/873, read 8 October 2026): allocations and account balances (page 1 and annexure, page 6), the bulk water transfers, the restriction order and the next statement date (page 1), the resource assessment data sheet with the 6 GL deficit (page 2), and the storage simulation (page 4).
  2. The same department, Water Allocation Statement, Gwydir Regulated River Water Source, 8 October 2026 (PDF, PUB26/876, read 8 October 2026): allocations, account balances, September usage and the restriction order (page 1), the resource assessment data sheet with the 2 GL notional deficit (page 2), the storage simulation (page 4) and the annexure (page 6).
  3. The same department, Water Allocation Statement, Namoi Regulated River Water Sources, 7 September 2026 (PDF, PUB26/690, read 8 October 2026): the September allocations, account balances, the 9 GL deficit, the storage simulation and the earlier Section 324 Order.
  4. The same department, Water Allocation Statement, Gwydir Regulated River Water Source, 7 September 2026 (PDF, PUB26/688, read 8 October 2026): the September allocations, account balances, the 2 GL surplus and its note, and the earlier Section 324 Order.
  5. The same department, Various water sources in the northern Murray-Darling Basin Order (No.2) 2026 (web page, updated 28 September 2026, read 8 October 2026): the reinstatement, the restriction's start and end dates and licences affected, the 250 GL trigger and its reason, relaxation flow thresholds and what is excluded.

How we did this

We downloaded the 8 October and 7 September statements for both valleys from the department's water allocation statements page and kept copies, and compared them line by line. Each statement gives the date its assessment is based on: 30 September 2026 for October, 31 August 2026 for September. The October files are named for 10 October; we give the date printed on each statement. Every change in the story is our subtraction of the two statements' figures, and “committed” in the figure is our sum of the page 2 lines the department subtracts from active volume; both reproduce the department's own surplus or deficit. Active volume is the department's measure and is not the same as a percentage full; we have not converted it. The order's page gives its end date as 30 June 2027 in its status panel, as both statements do, but one of its answers to frequently asked questions still says 30 June 2026; we have used the status panel. We have not assessed whether any relaxation flow threshold has been met. We did not contact the department for this piece. The “our view” section is opinion based on the documents described.