Lower Namoi and Gwydir water allocations for 2026-27: no new general-security water, and the dams since January

General-security irrigators in the Lower Namoi and the Gwydir have had no new water allocated for the 2026-27 year, and the September statements from the NSW water department did not change that. The Lower Namoi stands at 0% with accounts holding 339 gigalitres carried over; the Gwydir at 0% with 437 gigalitres. Upper Namoi general security is at its 100% maximum. Towns are not affected: the department says higher-priority needs are secure for next 24 months and beyond, which in the Namoi includes Manilla and Barraba.

What the September statements say

The Gwydir statement of 7 September reports Catchment conditions remain dry, with low inflow recorded in the past month. As a result, no allocation has been made to General Security (GS) or environmental water allowance (EWA) accounts. Copeton Dam's active volume was 801 GL at 31 August.

The Namoi statement, the same day, reports a slight improvement in overall resources since the last assessment due to inflows into Keepit Dam, with Keepit and Split Rock together holding 604 GL of active volume. But its resource assessment still ends in the red. After water for higher priorities, the two general-security account balances, evaporation and delivery losses, it shows a deficit of 9 GL, and says A deficit in overall resources is identified in this assessment, which will be monitored closely.

So the irrigation season starts on carry-over. An account balance is water already held: carried over from earlier allocations, plus any traded in (the Upper Namoi statement notes its balance Includes 16 GL of traded volume.). That is why the Lower Namoi can show 0% new allocation beside a balance of 138%.

Nine months of storage, from the department's own statements

Every monthly statement this calendar year carries an active-volume figure for the two valleys' storages. Read together they show the summer drawdown, and that it has stopped falling rather than started recovering.

From the end of December to the start of June, the Namoi storages fell by 177 GL and Copeton by 222 GL. Since then the Namoi has edged up by 7 GL and Copeton has eased by 12 GL. Each statement is based on its own assessment date, shown in the first column, so the gaps between rows are not all a month.

The downstream link: Menindee

Both statements say supplementary and, in the Gwydir, floodplain harvesting access was restricted under a Section 324 Order in force until 30 September 2026, and that the restrictions are temporarily lifted now as the active storage levels in the upper lakes at Menindee have risen above 250GL. That is the thread connecting these valleys to the Darling-Baaka: what upstream licence holders may take depends in part on what reaches the lakes far downstream on the Darling.

Our view

The number worth watching each month is not the allocation percentage, which will stay at 0% until there are real inflows, but the Namoi surplus line. It has been negative in every statement since March. The department defines that line as the water left after accounting for all commitments, so while it is negative, on its own accounting there is nothing left over to allocate.

What to watch

The next statements for both valleys are due on Thursday 8 October 2026, and the full bulk water transfer from Split Rock to Keepit is scheduled for October. Look first at the Namoi surplus line, then at whether any inflow is large enough to move general-security allocations off 0%.

Sources

1. NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Water Allocation Statement, Namoi Regulated River Water Sources, 7 September 2026 (PDF, read 2 October 2026): allocations and account balances, the Keepit and Split Rock active volume, the 9 GL deficit and its definition, the security of higher-priority uses including Manilla and Barraba, the bulk water transfer, the Section 324 Order and the next statement date.
2. The same department, Water Allocation Statement, Gwydir Regulated River Water Source, 7 September 2026 (PDF, read 2 October 2026): the 0% allocation and its stated reason, account balances, Copeton's active volume and the Section 324 Order.
3. The same department, Water allocation statements (index, read 2 October 2026): the statements dated 12 January to 7 September 2026 for both valleys, from which the storage table is compiled, including the 1 July opening statements.

How we did this

The storage table lists the active-volume figure printed in each of the eight Namoi and eight Gwydir statements published between 12 January and 7 September 2026, against the assessment date each statement gives. The changes quoted in the text are our subtraction of those figures. Active volume is the department's measure and is not the same as a percentage full; we have not converted it. We did not contact the department for this piece. The “our view” paragraph is opinion based on the statements quoted.